IMPACT OF THE EMU ON THE SOUTH-EAST EUROPE REGION

Lead researcher under this strand is Assoc. Prof. Kaloyan Simeonov.

This research strand focused on the impact of the Economic and Monetary Union developments on the countries from South-East Europe. The prospects for future Euro area accession after EU membership were at the centre of the study. Currently, the countries from South-East Europe are at different stages for EMU preparations. Some countries are EU Member States but they are still not in the Euro area not even in the so-called “waiting room” (ERM II – the Exchange Rate Mechanism II). Other countries are advanced to a certain degree in relation to EU accession negotiations, some have candidate status but did not started accession negations. Some of the South-East Europe countries do not have even candidate status but just European perspective and potential candidate countries. The EMU have a substantial impact on these countries even outside the debate of the EU accession perspectives. This impact was also among the dimensions studied.  Last but not least, these countries have quite different exchange rate regimes, some of them applying floating regimes, Bosnia and Herzegovina applying currency board and Montenegro and Kosovo accepting the extreme choice of unilateral euroisation. The latter regime is not compatible with EU accession and preparations for EMU membership and opens new questions for discussion and research.

To achieve this ambitious research objectives a team of students of the Department of EU Studies was formed (three sub-contracted researchers, students at Bachelor level) under the methodological guidance of Assoc. Prof. K. Simeonov.

The team conducted the study in the period March-June 2017.

The first draft of the analysis “Influence of the EMU on the Western Balkans” was presented to discussion by the project team on 4 May 2017. A protocol of the academic discussion was published on the project website – http://jeanmonnetexcellence.bg/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/Protokol.pdf

The second revised draft of the analysis under the title “Perspectives for Adoption of the Euro by the Western Balkan Countries” was deposited to the project team for review in June 2017.

The study has now been published and is also available online in the Publication section of our website. You can also access it here:

[1] A minister of foreign affairs provided an interview but did not agree to have it published.